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Realistic Online Polls

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randallburns
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Post by randallburns Sat Nov 05, 2011 2:06 am

We've all seen those opinion polls corporations use to sell products-or candidates.

National consensus is a funny thing. Most of us know what people around us think-but that rarely gives us a good indication what people in the nation as whole think.

Folks that support the occupy movement are only part of the 99%. To really create a new national consensus
we need to first really accurately understand what the current national consensus is-and how it might be changed.

How does this relate to an online general assembly? Well if a block of volunteers could be obtained that really did span the US political landscape, we'd be closer to making this happen. If we had the right information about a block of volunteers, we could use that information to adjust the results of an online poll to be closer to what we might get from a poll of the public.

One idea I've had:
conduct some non-secret ballot polls-including some issues that we'd like some answers to beyond the standard issues. My first question: who has some ideas for poll questions? Who is willing to volunteer for polling?

Click here:
http://www.people-press.org/2011/05/04/beyond-red-vs-blue-the-political-typology/
There is a link called "take the quiz"

publish your detailed results here along with location and ethnicity and age. This lets us adjust for sample bias.

I may also need an email address for purposes of poll security
(I'll probably use an external polling system for the polling we do).

Here is a link on the kind of poll we might do on the internet
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_access_poll

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Post by PDT Sun Nov 06, 2011 10:43 am

First thing we need everyone to do here is to make sure their profile information is filled out. We need to have age, sex and location. This will give us some of the demographics we need to make sure our sample is representative of the country.

-Paul

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Post by Brandon Harper Thu Nov 10, 2011 3:12 am

In regard to cooperating with people who have no or limited access to the internet, I don't think we should necessarily rule out paper as a tool. Since part of our goal is to sign a petition anyway, forming a written collection of public opinion by designing and printing useful surveys could be a simple and straight-forward matter. If nothing else, it could at least provide a kind of insurance policy/tangible headcount in the event of complication with internet services. I think there are enough people who want their voices heard to pull this off.

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Post by randallburns Thu Nov 10, 2011 4:27 pm

When doing polling, it makes sense to enable people to collect responses from folks that aren't online. I don't think that is the way to get things started initially though.
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Post by PDT Thu Nov 10, 2011 5:12 pm

Telephone polling using random digit dialing technique and representative sample quotas could also be implemented.

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Post by kathyhoganloryer Sat Nov 12, 2011 1:43 am

I don't know how we got on to patenting genes, but I think our work should be about wealth disparity, and the rampant dealings of Wall Street in confiscating the wealth and buying the political process.

There are a thousands ills in the world, but in my view, Occupy Wall Street is about Wall Street, and I thin k that is where the focus should remain.

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Post by PDT Mon Nov 14, 2011 10:15 am

kathyhoganloryer wrote:I don't know how we got on to patenting genes, but I think our work should be about wealth disparity, and the rampant dealings of Wall Street in confiscating the wealth and buying the political process.

There are a thousands ills in the world, but in my view, Occupy Wall Street is about Wall Street, and I thin k that is where the focus should remain.

I agree, Kathy. Not that some people may have concerns that are indirectly linked. Corporate ownership of anything human has to be off the table. But that is where the corporatists are headed because nobody stops them from doing anything with our current government.

It just shows how far along they are and why we must stop them and turn back the tide. We should begin with the basics. No more corporate influence in our government. Period.

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Post by kathyhoganloryer Mon Nov 14, 2011 11:37 am

I understand what you're saying. In the last few days the Occupy Philly people voted to stay at Dillworth Plaza (at Ciuty Hall) rather than move across the street, where the City has asked them to move.

The City has has longstanding plans to begin construction work at Dillworth Plaza this Novemeber, and they need the occupiers to move, and they won't.

So, fine, now the fight is going to be about Dillworth Plaza, which I could not give a damn about. Now the fight is going to pit occupiers against the construction workers, who will be prevented from working, when they desparately need the work.

Look, I support the occupy movemenbt, absolutely. I am dismayed at what I am seeing in Philly and in some other places, where the big picture it is being diluted and devolving into petty parochial squabbles that are deflecting the focus away from the issues that got us all here in the first place.

Many more movements are derailed than succeed, and those that fail do exactly this -- get off into the weeds with tangential and internal squabbles and then are never heard from again. I hope I'm wrong about the occupiers headed in the that direction, I truly hope I am wrong.

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Post by PDT Mon Nov 14, 2011 11:54 am

It is a tough call with the Philly movement. I have been in contact with some of the occupiers. The project the city wants to start is a skating rink. (a skating rink at city hall?) A 50 million dollar skating rink. The occupiers have stated that maybe that money could be spent somewhere else. Schools? Homeless shelters? And I happen to agree. City hall doesn't need a skating rink.

It's also the principal that Dillworth Plaza (City Hall) belongs to the citizens of Philadelphia and that is what this is all about. Someone is going to make money off of the skating rink, and it won't benefit the citizens of Philadelphia all that much. They haven't really gotten that message out. The mayor is now pushing up the rhetoric about how evil the occupiers have become in recent days, in order to help make his case. He was so friendly in the beginning, now he's singing a different tune since the deadline for the project is here.

I say they should stay.

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Post by TuSpd Mon Nov 14, 2011 11:57 am

kathyhoganloryer wrote:I understand what you're saying. In the last few days the Occupy Philly people voted to stay at Dillworth Plaza (at Ciuty Hall) rather than move across the street, where the City has asked them to move.

The City has has longstanding plans to begin construction work at Dillworth Plaza this Novemeber, and they need the occupiers to move, and they won't.

So, fine, now the fight is going to be about Dillworth Plaza, which I could not give a damn about. Now the fight is going to pit occupiers against the construction workers, who will be prevented from working, when they desperately need the work.

Look, I support the occupy movement, absolutely. I am dismayed at what I am seeing in Philly and in some other places, where the big picture it is being diluted and devolving into petty parochial squabbles that are deflecting the focus away from the issues that got us all here in the first place.

Many more movements are derailed than succeed, and those that fail do exactly this -- get off into the weeds with tangential and internal squabbles and then are never heard from again. I hope I'm wrong about the occupiers headed in the that direction, I truly hope I am wrong.

I agree with you completely. If the Occupiers want Labor's support, they should NOT hinder or stop construction or they will lose them and possibly others around the country if this continues. Organized Labor (in my opinion) wants to support OWS but doesn't expect them to cause any work stoppages unnecessarily.

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Post by TuSpd Mon Nov 14, 2011 12:02 pm

kathyhoganloryer wrote:I understand what you're saying. In the last few days the Occupy Philly people voted to stay at Dillworth Plaza (at Ciuty Hall) rather than move across the street, where the City has asked them to move.

The City has has longstanding plans to begin construction work at Dillworth Plaza this Novemeber, and they need the occupiers to move, and they won't.

So, fine, now the fight is going to be about Dillworth Plaza, which I could not give a damn about. Now the fight is going to pit occupiers against the construction workers, who will be prevented from working, when they desperately need the work.

Look, I support the occupy movement, absolutely. I am dismayed at what I am seeing in Philly and in some other places, where the big picture it is being diluted and devolving into petty parochial squabbles that are deflecting the focus away from the issues that got us all here in the first place.

Many more movements are derailed than succeed, and those that fail do exactly this -- get off into the weeds with tangential and internal squabbles and then are never heard from again. I hope I'm wrong about the occupiers headed in the that direction, I truly hope I am wrong.

I agree with you completely. If the Occupiers want Labor's support, they should NOT hinder or stop construction or they will lose them and possibly others around the country if this continues. Organized Labor (in my opinion) wants to support OWS but doesn't expect them to cause any work stoppages unnecessarily.

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Post by kathyhoganloryer Mon Nov 14, 2011 1:28 pm

PDT - I thought it was just an ice skating rink too, but it's not, it's a whole construction thing, andf the ice skating part is just one small removable activity that is being included in the overall project.

The negotiations and contracts for this work have been going on for more than 2 years, with lots of public hearings on it and opportunity for the public to be heard. This has long been a done deal as far as the constuction start date. It is not some trick the City just came up with to hassle the occupiers. The occupiers were told when the occupation started that they would need to move in November, so there is no big surprise being sprung on the demonstrators.

Look, I totally support the occupy movement, I'm not against them one bit. My only point is that I don't want to see the efforts get distracted and diluted by side arguments that have nothing to do with what we're about.

In other occupations, there's no doubt, the local governments are hassling the occupiers by making them move or trying to shut them down altogether. I don't think that's what's happening in the Philly situation. This is a longstsnding construction contract that the occupiers were told about from the get go, and I don't think the occupiers would be caving in or giving up on anything important by moving across the street.

There are times to stand your ground and fight to the finish, I just don't think this is the right time or situation to do this, under the facts of this particular circumstance.

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Post by Brandon Harper Mon Nov 14, 2011 8:41 pm

kathyhoganloryer wrote:PDT - I thought it was just an ice skating rink too, but it's not, it's a whole construction thing, andf the ice skating part is just one small removable activity that is being included in the overall project.

The negotiations and contracts for this work have been going on for more than 2 years, with lots of public hearings on it and opportunity for the public to be heard. This has long been a done deal as far as the constuction start date. It is not some trick the City just came up with to hassle the occupiers. The occupiers were told when the occupation started that they would need to move in November, so there is no big surprise being sprung on the demonstrators.

Look, I totally support the occupy movement, I'm not against them one bit. My only point is that I don't want to see the efforts get distracted and diluted by side arguments that have nothing to do with what we're about.

In other occupations, there's no doubt, the local governments are hassling the occupiers by making them move or trying to shut them down altogether. I don't think that's what's happening in the Philly situation. This is a longstsnding construction contract that the occupiers were told about from the get go, and I don't think the occupiers would be caving in or giving up on anything important by moving across the street.

There are times to stand your ground and fight to the finish, I just don't think this is the right time or situation to do this, under the facts of this particular circumstance.

I wonder what the general thoughts are on this issue among occupy movements around America. If Philly seriously threatens to lose the support of workers, then would it be feasible to make contact with occupy locations that don't agree with what Philly is doing, so that the movement in general can petition them to stop? This may seem a little far-fetched, considering just how fractured and divided things really are, but some attempt to keep Occupy stable must be made.

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Post by PDT Mon Nov 14, 2011 9:14 pm

I guess what I'm saying is, it's tough to deny people jobs, but what good is this project really doing the city? There's a brand new condo tower sitting right next store where they can't sell the million dollar units. I'm sure this project has something to do with that. There are plenty of other areas in Philadelphia that could use much more improvement than Dillworth Plaza does right now. So, I'm kind of with the occupiers on this one.

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Post by kathyhoganloryer Tue Nov 15, 2011 2:42 am

PDT, hey, think what you like, my blessings upon you. I guess, as a lawyer, I respect the validity of the whole contract and negotiation process. This particular contract, from everything I've read about it, was legitimate, with an open public process. It took a long open process (years) to finalize it. There was nothing shady about it.

The occupiers can do what they like, my blessings upon them, too, but looking at it from the outside, it doesn't seem fair to try to block the whole construction project from going forward at this late date.

The occupation in Philly had nothing to do with the construction project, but it looks like now, that is the only thing it will be about.

I have supported the Philly occupiers, and have brought over dozens of sandwiches. Honestly, I'm not against them, I just don't like that they're going to be all about this stupid construction project at Dillworth Plaza instead of being about the larger core issues.

Brandon, I agree, it would be so very awesome if there were a mechanism for national cross-occupier communication. I'm sure there must be some of that going on informally already, maybe it will develop over time.

I think the whole gestalt of the occupier movement is to respect the decisions made by the individual encampments, through their General Assemblies, so I don't know if outsider opinions by non-participants, or by participants from other locations, would be persuasive. Frustrating, ain't it?

Still, the movement is only 2 months old, and it has already done a lot to influence the national discussion about our many economic dysfunctions. I just hope it can stay on track and keep going, and not get derailed by the many tangential externalities that arise along the way.

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Post by PDT Tue Nov 15, 2011 1:18 pm

I'm not necessarily arguing with you Kathy, I'm just trying to shed light on the protesters feelings. As witnessed last night in New York, I am suspicious of government's intentions. Always.

According to Bloomberg, he has to deny the protester's first amendment rights in order to allow first amendment rights. He has to evict them, in order to protect them. Their message is getting drowned out in all of this. They are trying to create a new society. This isn't about fixing things through government. They don't trust their government, and neither do I. Not after I listen to that kind of doublespeak.

And I'm not saying they will be able to bring about great changes this way, but I sure as heck appreciate their effort.

Peace

-Paul

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Post by randallburns Tue Nov 15, 2011 3:25 pm

kathyhoganloryer wrote:I don't know how we got on to patenting genes, but I think our work should be about wealth disparity, and the rampant dealings of Wall Street in confiscating the wealth and buying the political process.

There are a thousands ills in the world, but in my view, Occupy Wall Street is about Wall Street, and I thin k that is where the focus should remain.

I'd prioritize this a little differently. I'd see it as making national law reflect national consensus. Now it happens that 90% of Americans polled want less wealth/income disparity(though I have a few doubts about the methods used in that particular poll)-which is one of the highest figures I've seen in an national poll. The thing is this: I don't think we can really rely on corporate sponsored polling agencies to necessarily do the polls a populist movement needs. We can use the existing poll data as a starting point-but ultimately it will mean developing an independent capability.


The occupy movement is not a cross section of american. I will succeed if it focuses on those issues around which there is a both an occupy activist consensus and national consensus-and that will require some care to really understand.
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Post by RayArrowood Tue Nov 15, 2011 8:02 pm

Here in California, the occupiers are cutting there own throats so to speak. Santa Cruz broke into two groups, mostly because the group got too big to deal with the internal conflicts.

Plus a lot of the homeless population doesn't care about what happens to the movement, which has added even more stress.

There is too much fighting between the factions in the large occupations, and very little focus on the root causes. The occupiers don't seem to realize that they made the 1% rich, and the solution is to stop buying all the junk and learn to live more simply on less.

There are one million new homeless people a year now, and we are just getting started. I'm willing to bet that one year from now, this movement will be much different.



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Post by PDT Wed Nov 16, 2011 12:19 pm

Ray,
I agree that there is an element of what you describe going on at the occupations. But I also think there is an element that exists which understands the concepts of more simple and sustainable living. But for two reasons, I feel the occupations need to be supported and encouraged.

1 A physical presence, where people gather, talk to each other, and at the end of the day have at least one unified message "we are fed up with government as it currently is" or something along those lines is a good starting point.

2. The conflicts that are arising within the groups are natural and have to play themselves out. Human beings (even as we have seen here) do not all share the exact same opinions. But the dialogue that is going on will help people figure out, eventually, those things that must be done. At least, maybe, get people thinking about them.

What I hope comes of this is an awareness, that we all feel something similar, and need to act together in order to bring about change. The more that the government shuts them down, the more we see exactly what we are up against, and the more we have to encourage this activity.

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Post by Brandon Harper Thu Nov 17, 2011 4:20 am

You're right, Kathy. Occupy camps really don't have the right to impose their will on one another, and even if they had good reason there wouldn't be a practical means of enforcement. There shouldn't be, either, as that would obviously go against everything we're striving for. I think the intent of multiple camps petitioning an individual one, provided the circumstance that it somehow violates what is generally accepted as ethical code in the occupy movement, is to yield a psychological reaction among the public more than to attempt an exercise of conventional democratic power. An idea like the one I've mentioned would probably require a great deal of caution and may risk doing more harm than good. A motion equivalent to it, if executed properly, might prove to people that participants scattered across the occupy movement in the U.S. are capable of organizing for selected purposes.

Perhaps I feel urgently motivated to examine experimental options that might produce some kind of stable infrastructure among the whole of Occupy ASAP for reasons of pessimism. Things really have only been rolling for two months, but most of my fears operate from the following conditions of what seems to be consistent human behavior.

1: The public, in general, has a very short attention span. It is impressed upon easily by acute waves of frantic emotion that burn out like firecrackers, having quickly been drowned out by unrelated events.
2: People desire to be a component in something bigger than themselves, but, in general, desire minimal utilization of intellectual and physical effort necessary. This specifically seems to be the behavior of people who find strength with very numerous peers or with a hierarchy directing operations. Phrases like "I support" or "please support" are idle phrases from my experiences, as there's a vast difference between words and actions.
3: Procrastination. In general, members of our species prefer, even if a preemptive course of action is known, to react and adapt to concerned events and conditions if it requires an immediate solution.

I've seen quite a lot of concrete reasoning from people in this thread (as is typical in this forum), and it's given me a lot of perspective on what's happening. Personally, I don't think there's very much time before either interest in the resistance is lost or the government's accretion of power becomes irreversible, a process which will only accelerate exponentially if violence breaks out. What's happening right now is very, very important.

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